2022’s Ultimate Political Betting Guide

2022's Ultimate Political Betting Guide

With the online betting market expanding to include many popular entertainment categories, you can now place bets on virtually anything. But did you know that betting on politics is also a thing? 

Should you decide to try it, earn some money, and have fun expecting the outcome, we’ve put together this political betting guide for you.

Read on!


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History of Political Betting

Before political polls entered the scene, political betting was actually popular and legal, especially in the US. People used to bet for fun, between themselves to “even the odds”, or for money. However, nowadays, betting on politics in the US is practically impossible.

Today, betting on any presidential election or political party is a global trend on the rise. It’s also a pretty lucrative category in online (and offshore) betting markets that started spreading somewhere in 2016. 

Popular Markets for Political Betting in the UK

Betting on popular or future political events has become a regular thing in UK’s online betting market. Here are some of the most popular markets in British politics betting in 2022: 

Next Conservative Leader

  • Rishi Sunak – 37/13
  • Liz Truss – 33/5
  • Jeremy Hunt – 8/1
  • Michael Gove – 20/1
  • Tom Tugendhat – 9/1

Next Prime Minister

  • Jeremy Corbyn – 250/1
  • Jeremy Hunt – 10/1
  • Michael Gove – 33/1
  • Rishi Sunak – 9/4
  • Rory Stewart – 200/1

Boris Johnson Exit Date
 

  • 2022 – 1/1
  • 2024 (or later) – 13/8
  • 2023 – 7/2

Who Will Win London Mayoral Elections

  • Piers Morgan – 50/1
  • Sadiq Khan – 6/4
  • David Lammy – 25/1
  • Rory Stewart – 16/1
     

Next Labour Leader

  • Rebecca Long-Bailey – 100/1
     
  • Lisa Nandy – 10/1
  • Emily Thornberry – 150/1
  • Andy Burnham – 57/17
  • Angela Rayner – 10/1

Birmingham Erdington By-Elections

  • Labour – 1/33
  • Conservatives – 16/1
  • Liberal Democrats – 25/1
  • Green – 200/1
  • Reform UK – 200/1

Who Will Win Mosts Seats At Next UK General Elections

  • Conservative – 4/6
  • Labour – 7/5
  • Liberal Democrats – 80/1
  • Reform UK – 100/1
  • Reclaim Party – 50/1

Year of The Next General Elections

  • 2022 – 16/1
  • 2023 – 9/2
  • 2024 or later – 4/7
  • 2024 – 3/10

Betting on US Politics

Regardless of where you live, US politics is the most popular politics betting category. With the US midterm elections coming this year, it’s becoming even more popular; let’s check out the most popular US politics betting markets right now. 

2022 House of Representatives Election Winner

  • Republican Majority – 1/5
  • Democrat Majority – 9/2
  • No Majority – 66/1

Senate Results 2022 Winner

  • Republicans Under 50 Seats – 11/2
  • Republicans Over 50 Seats – 4/11
  • Republicans Exactly 50 Seats – 7/2

Who Will Be Republican’s Candidate in Presidential 2024 Elections

  • Donald J Trump – 11/8
  • Ron de Santis – 5/1
  • Nikki Haley – 9/1
     
  • Tucker Carlson – 33/1
  • Ted Cruz  – 28/1

Who Will Be Democrat’s Candidate in Presidential 2024 Elections

  • Hillary Clinton – 50/1
  • Joe Biden – 2/1
  • Kamala Harris – 3/1
  • Pete Buttigieg – 10/1

2024 Presidential Elections Winner

  • Donald J. Trump – 7/2
  • Joe Biden – 5/1
  • Kamala Harris – 8/1
     
  • Ron de Santis – 9/1
  • Mike Pence – 25/1

Specials Betting Odds

  • Kamala Harris become President before the end of 2040 – 6/5
  • Kamala Harris to become two-term President before the end of 2040 – 9/4

World Politics Betting Tips 

The rest of the world’s big political events, government affairs, presidential elections, or new leader namings can also be spotted on online political betting sites. 

Named Leader To Leave Their Elected Position First

  • Yoshihide Suga (Japan) – 10/11
  • Justin Trudeau (Canada) – 42/5
  • Xi Jinping (China) – 68/5
  • Erdogan (Turkey) – 68/5
     
  • Emmanuel Macron (France) – 37/5
  • Joe Biden (USA) – 8/1

Next German Chancellor

  • Armin Laschet  – 1/5
  • Annalena Baerbock – 5/1
  • Olaf Scholz – 20/1
  • Markus Soder – 16/1

 Next Country To Leave the EU

  • Italy – 57/17
  • France – 8/1
  • Hungary – 14/1
  • Poland – 7/1
  • Greece – 6/1

Who Will Be The Next French President

  • Emmanuel Macron – 2/9
       
  • Eric Zemmour – 16/1
  • Marine Le Pen – 14/1
  • Valerie Pecresse – 14/1
  • Xavier Bertrand – 100/1

Types Of Political Betting

Unlike the classical betting approach, in political betting, there are different approaches. 

  • Moneyline – you can bet on the favourite and the underdog. The chances are not split 50/50, and betting on the favourite has less value for your money than betting on the underdog.
  • Futures most political bets belong in this category; with many political events happening this year, it’s quite a popular one.
  • Props – this popular betting category usually has nothing to do with the political outcome, but rather occurrences during a political event. It is popular in many other forms of entertainment betting too.
  • Totals (over/under) – commonly called spread bets, these are quite popular in the world of politics betting.  Since there are many seats in a Parliament/Senate, you can place many different bets. However, by losing in political spread betting, you may lose more than your betted amount. On the other hand, by winning these bets, you may get up to 50 times the bet you placed, depending on the category.

Political Betting Tips 

Betting on politics can be tricky, but also ten times more lucrative than sports betting. Here are a few tips to include in your political betting strategy: 

  • Do your own research – don’t rely solely on a single source – talk to people, follow polls and prediction markets, news, and social media articles.
     
  • Don’t be biased – betting on your favourite just for the sake of it is a bad decision. Business and pleasure should never mix.
  • Bet early – the odds are higher, and as each day passes and the political event you’re betting on gets near, the odds are decreasing.
  • Beware of polls – their essence is to put probabilities and indicate the public’s opinion. In reality, they are frequently used to favour a certain candidate. Different polling bureaus favour different candidates and misinterpret the actual results in their favour.
  • Don’t underestimate the underdog – prediction markets are not always right, and many things can change. Trust your own gut, and you may be in for a big reward.
  • Avoid biased news pages and media outlets – Certain media outlets are funded by a specific political party or candidate;  they serve as tools for spreading their propaganda and points of view.

Ready To Place A Wager? 

Betting on politics is a bit different than placing your regular wager with the sportsbook, mostly because of the future bet, the betting strategy, the media influence, and the votes of the people. 

We hope this political betting guide answered all your questions and that your bet slip turns into a fat cheque.

FAQ:

Is betting on politics legal? 

Offered by many online bookmakers around the globe, betting on politics is a completely legit betting category for people aged at least 18. US citizens, however, have to use offshore licenced websites, since political betting is prohibited in the US. 

Can you bet on UK and US politics? 

Absolutely. UK and US presidential elections and political events are quite popular in the world of political betting. 

What kind of political betting markets do sportsbooks offer?

As explained in this political betting guide, the main markets to bet on politics are mostly tied to betting on future presidents, political parties, and parliament and senate seats.

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